Step 5: Calculate annual risk exposure For each event type and each asset, create a risk curve, then calculate the annual risk exposure by estimating the area under the curve. Step 4: Assess the damages to each asset For each asset, estimate damages for all the types of hazards for all scenarios across all event types. Step 3: Identify affected assets For each event scenario, identify the physical, economic, and social assets affected. Step 2: Define event scenarios For each event type, develop two to four scenarios covering a range of low to high impact of that event, then assign an annual probability of occurrence for each scenario. Step 1: Define types of relevant hazards Make a list of the types of hazardous events that could have a serious impact on a city or property. By defining specific scenarios and estimating total damages to all types of assets, a community can begin to quantify the impact of various events. The analytical process summarized below begins with a look at all possible hazards. In general, taking action to minimize damage caused by extreme weather events is the best way to reduce exposure because the probability of a natural disaster occurring is beyond the community’s control. Total risk is calculated by summing the values of risk associated with individual events. This profile is developed by identifying the types of events that could occur in a particular city, the probability that events of varying severity will occur, and the consequences of those events, including economic, infrastructure, socio-cultural, and public health losses. The risk-assessment process begins with a risk profile. Risk = probability x damage Risk Assessment Process Also called exposure, risk is a quantifiable measure that city decision makers in cities of all sizes can use in prioritizing spending, planning for future hazardous events, and ultimately beginning to mitigate the consequences of climate change. In the context of climate change and cities, probability refers to the likelihood of a severe weather event or natural disaster occurring, while damage refers to the consequences such an event would have on a city’s infrastructure, economy, and people. ![]() Risk is the product of two elements: probability and damage. For more on strategies to reduce risk, see Resilience along the Rural–Urban Transect and other ULI publications at uli.org/resilience. But whereas this paper is about assessing risk, it does not explore strategies to reduce risk. The concepts and framework presented here are intended to help these decision makers-as well as any property or portfolio owner-identify and understand the risks they face. ![]() ![]() A 2005 National Institute for Building Sciences report showed that every $1 spent on prevention saves $4 in recovery costs. Local governments often have few resources for preparedness and planning, even though prevention is a far more cost-effective approach to sustainability than recovery after a disaster. This paper is directed primarily at cities and local government decision makers because they bear fundamental responsibility for the safety and well-being of their communities. Whereas ULI’s Urban Resilience Program focuses on risks related to climate change, the general process outlined here can be used for any type of risk, whether related to climate change or not. This paper offers an analytic framework that looks at types of risks, the types of assets that need protecting, and potential damages a city may face, resulting in a guide that can be used to set priorities for developing a resilience strategy and implementing projects. It can be challenging to determine the magnitude of such risks, which assets and communities are most vulnerable, and where to invest limited resources. City decision makers are responsible for protecting a broad array of physical properties, economic sectors, and cultural assets from a wide variety of risks-both in the short and long term.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |